Brexit election boost evaporates for pound
LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) British Prime Minister Theresa May calling a snap election seemed like the best news imaginable for all those wondering when they could call the bottom of the pound Brexit driven 20 percent fall.
Yet six weeks on, all sorts of doubts have set in.
Strategists, traders Canada Goose online and bank salespeople fell over themselves on April 18 to argue the election Canada Goose Coats On Sale would strengthen May hand canada goose outlet store locations over hardline eurosceptics in her own party and, more generally, remove election risk from imminent talks with Brussels on Britain departure from the European Union.
Even if she fell short, they said, a weaker majority might also force her to pay more heed to other views in parliament that are softer on issues of immigration and canada goose clearance access to the EU lucrative single market.
https://www.canadagoose-online-shop.co.uk/ The pound surged almost 4 percent in three weeks, topping $1.30 for the first time in six months and prompting banks and the big asset managers who dominate financial markets to cash in profits made betting against sterling since last Canada Goose Parka June.
But in the past 10 days of conflicting opinion polls, that boost has evaporated and investors now face Brexit talks, and all the difficult headlines they will bring, with sterling again looking vulnerable.
In trade weighted terms, the pound is back where it was on April 9.
I want a big bet on how the election going to go? Bluntly, no, because there so much volatility around the polling, said Mike Amey, head of Canada Goose Online sterling portfolios at giant bond investor Canada Goose sale PIMCO.
don have a big position on the currency, we think that sterling and bonds are on the richer side. (But) it doesn seem like an obvious canada goose black friday sale period, with sterling where it is, to run a very big position one way canada goose coats on sale or the other.
HISTORY Some wonder why the pound hasn fallen more.
Sterling has a history of weakening in the run in to closely Canada Goose Jackets fought elections as well as one of falling when the Conservatives’ poll ratings are worsening.
Yet sterling falls of the past fortnight pale in comparison with others since last June.
One reason is that this is no ordinary election.
The market has got used to May plan for Britain divorce from Europe, but for financial investors it is still the wrong one the same Brexit blueprint that had them selling the pound aggressively last canada goose outlet toronto factory September and October.
scenarios look worse canada goose replica short term, but better further out, canada goose store Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note to clients this week.
a smaller majority for Canada Goose Outlet the Conservatives than today or a Labour led government, we would assume a more negative initial reaction to greater political instability, but a softer Brexit, higher spending and stronger medium term growth prospects than in our base case.
Others, notably canada goose coats the world second biggest currency trader JPMorgan, took a similar line this week.
Another element is the growing familiarity of investors with big political risks over the past two years and the extent to which most have tended canada goose to buy canada goose jacket cheap avoid positioning heavily for one result or another ahead of canada goose deals major events.
Donald Trump election last November, like the Brexit referendum before it, taught investors to keep their money buy canada goose jacket off the table until the results were in. election, when the market tried to sell the dollar (after Trump won) and then began to think canadian goose jacket about the actual policies and we then saw a rally that lasted weeks, says Lee Hardman, a strategist with giant Japanese financial group MUFG.
progressive coalition could lead ultimately to a stronger pound. If there was a left leaning coalition of Labour and Lib Dems (Liberal Democrats), obviously 2018 canada goose outlet the Brexit strategy would be ripped up.
So if there are bets against the pound, for now they have been taken where they are cheapest in the options market.
The one canada goose clearance sale month sterling dollar risk reversal a cheap Canada Goose measure of the balance of bets for more falls of the currency in the next month over those for more gains hit its most negative since early February on Wednesday.
our web page Analysts from Canadian bank RBC calculate that the market currently prices in a Conservative majority of 85 seats, down from an earlier peak of 160.
longer term implications of the election are more ambiguous, but sterling preference for a larger expected Conservative majority is clear in the short term and the risk is that both fall further, the bank head of G10 FX strategy Adam Cole said in research sent to clients on Friday.